Analysis of trends in two climatic variables in the city of Ocotlán, Jalisco

Abstract

Global warming affects all inhabited areas of the planet, but its impacts vary significantly across regions. The assessment of local-scale climate trends is fundamental for the development of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Currently, there is a lack of studies focused on analyzing climatic behavior and climat-change impacts in the city of Ocotlán, Jalisco. This study analyzes temperature and precipitation trends in Ocotlán, based on data recorded by the “El Fuerte” meteorological station from the National Water Commission. Temperature anomalies were calculated, and the Mann-Kendall test together with Kendall’s correlation were applied to detect significant trends. Sen’s slope was also estimated to quantify the magnitude of these trends. Additionally, monthly mean plots were generated to visualize the temporal evolution of the variables throughoutthe year. The results indicated an increase in mean temperature and daily thermal range, suggesting signs of climate change. Although precipitation did not exhibit a statistically significant trend, its negative correlation with maximum temperature may indicate a potential future decline in rainfall. These findings contribute to a better understanding of local climatic conditions and provide relevant information for decision-making in key sectors such as agriculture, public health and urban planning.